First Preference Results
Surplus: +2 votes
Would be eliminated first
Would be eliminated first
Key Poll Insights
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Decisive First-Round Victory: Oskar O'Sullivan became the first candidate to exceed the quota on the first count, securing 31 votes (54.4%) against a quota of 29 votes - a rare achievement in competitive three-way races.
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Competitive Second Place: Viktoriya O'Cullane leads Tomás Uítheachair by a single vote for second place: 13 first-preference votes (23.2%) vs 12 votes (21.4%), highlighting the closely contested nature of the race behind O'Sullivan's dominant lead.
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Dominant Performance: O'Sullivan's 31-vote haul represents a commanding 138% more first preferences than his nearest opponent (O'Cullane with 13), indicating strong cross-community support.
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STV System Rendered Moot: While designed for proportional representation, the Single Transferable Vote system became ceremonial as O'Sullivan's first-count victory eliminated the need for vote transfers.
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High Voter Engagement: 93% of respondents (53 of 57) indicated they would "definitely vote" (10/10), with 96.5% rating their likelihood at 8 or higher - suggesting robust turnout for the December 12-13 election.
Statistical Analysis
Margin of Victory
O'Sullivan's 18-vote margin over his nearest competitor, O'Cullane (13 votes), represents a 138% advantage, or a lead of 31.6 percentage points - one of the most decisive margins in recent Irish presidential polling. O'Cullane herself leads third-place Uítheachair by just 1 vote (13-12).
Complete Preference Distribution
Understanding how voters ranked all three candidates reveals overall preference patterns. However, these aggregate numbers don't show ballot-by-ballot transfer flows, which are critical for STV calculations.
Viktoriya O'Cullane
Oskar O'Sullivan ✓
Tomás Uítheachair
Ballot Flow Analysis
- O'Sullivan's Broad Appeal: Of the 25 voters who didn't rank him first, 12 put him second (48%) - showing he was a popular backup choice across both opposition camps.
- O'Cullane's Second-Choice Strength: Received 31 total second preferences (55.4%), including 18 from O'Sullivan voters and 9 from Uítheachair voters - the highest second-preference total among all candidates.
- Uítheachair's Base Limits: With only 12 first preferences (21.4%) and receiving 31 third preferences (55.4%), Uítheachair struggled to expand beyond his core supporters.
- Transfer Patterns: O'Cullane voters split 69% to O'Sullivan vs 31% to Uítheachair when their 2nd preferences are examined, showing O'Sullivan captured most of her supporters' backup votes.
📚 How STV Works (And Why It Didn't Matter Here)
The Single Transferable Vote system is designed to ensure majority support through ranked-choice voting:
- Quota Calculation: (Valid Votes ÷ 2) + 1 = (56 ÷ 2) + 1 = 29 votes
- First Count: Count all first-preference votes
- Victory Check: If any candidate exceeds quota, they're elected
- Elimination Process: If no winner, eliminate lowest candidate and transfer their votes
- Repeat: Continue until someone exceeds quota
STV Transfer Scenarios: What Would Have Happened
While O'Sullivan's first-round victory makes actual transfers unnecessary, analysis of the 56 individual ballots reveals exactly how votes would have flowed under STV elimination rules.
Scenario 1: If Uítheachair Were Eliminated First
With Uítheachair receiving the fewest first preferences (12 votes), he would be eliminated first under STV rules. Analysis of those 12 ballots shows their second preferences:
- 6 ballots transfer to O'Cullane (Uítheachair → O'Cullane → O'Sullivan)
- 6 ballots transfer to O'Sullivan (Uítheachair → O'Sullivan → O'Cullane)
Second Count Results:
- O'Sullivan: 31 + 6 = 37 votes (66.1%) ✓ ELECTED
- O'Cullane: 13 + 6 = 19 votes (33.9%)
Scenario 2: If O'Cullane Were Eliminated First
In an alternate counting method eliminating O'Cullane first, her 13 first-preference ballots would transfer:
- 9 ballots transfer to O'Sullivan (O'Cullane → O'Sullivan → Uítheachair)
- 4 ballots transfer to Uítheachair (O'Cullane → Uítheachair → O'Sullivan)
Second Count Results:
- O'Sullivan: 31 + 9 = 40 votes (71.4%) ✓ ELECTED
- Uítheachair: 12 + 4 = 16 votes (28.6%)
Key Finding: O'Sullivan's Strength Across Transfer Paths
In both elimination scenarios, O'Sullivan significantly exceeds the 29-vote quota (50% + 1):
- Eliminating Uítheachair first: O'Sullivan reaches 37 votes (8 above quota)
- Eliminating O'Cullane first: O'Sullivan reaches 40 votes (11 above quota)
Analysis: O'Sullivan's 69% transfer rate from O'Cullane voters (9 of 13) demonstrates strong second-choice appeal, while his 50% rate from Uítheachair voters (6 of 12) shows he captured transfers evenly from this base. This confirms O'Sullivan would win under any STV counting scenario.
What Mattered to Voters
Survey respondents indicated their top priority in selecting a President:
Priority Analysis
Government Experience Dominates: Nearly 40% of voters prioritized executive and governmental experience, potentially favoring candidates with legislative backgrounds like O'Cullane and Uítheachair. Despite this, O'Sullivan - running as an independent - captured the majority, suggesting his campaign successfully conveyed competence and leadership.
Diverse Motivations: With seven distinct priority categories each receiving significant support, the electorate demonstrated nuanced decision-making beyond single-issue voting, requiring candidates to appeal across multiple dimensions.
Community Demographics
Voter engagement by community tenure:
Since 2020 or Earlier
2021 Joiners
2022 Joiners
2023 Joiners
2024 Joiners
2025 Joiners
Engagement Across Generations
Balanced Representation: The poll captured voices from across the community's history, with roughly equal representation from long-standing members (28.1% from 2020 or earlier) and newest arrivals (28.1% from 2025).
Peak Years: 2024 and 2025 joiners together represent 52.7% of respondents, reflecting the community's recent growth and these newer members' strong engagement with democratic processes.
Methodology & Poll Details
Survey Period: December 6-9, 2025 (4 days)
Sample Size: 56 valid responses
Voting Method: Google Forms with ranked-choice voting (1st, 2nd, 3rd preferences)
Electoral System Simulated: Single Transferable Vote (STV) with quota of 50% + 1
Margin of Error: ±13.0% at 95% confidence level
Data Quality: 100% of ballots contained complete rankings for all three candidates. One response contained an inappropriate answer in the priorities question and was noted but included in vote counts.
Voter Commitment: 52 respondents (91.2%) indicated "Definitely voting (10/10)"; 5 respondents (8.8%) indicated "Very likely (8-9/10)"
Final Analysis
Based on 56 ballots analyzed, O'Sullivan secured 31 first-preference votes (55.4%), exceeding the STV quota of 29. Ballot-by-ballot analysis confirms that in both possible elimination scenarios, O'Sullivan would win decisively: reaching 37 votes if Uítheachair were eliminated first, or 40 votes if O'Cullane were eliminated first.
O'Cullane finished with 13 first preferences (23.2%) but demonstrated strong second-choice appeal with 55.4% of all second preferences. Uítheachair secured 12 first preferences (21.4%), the lowest among the three candidates. The ballot flow data shows O'Sullivan captured 69% of O'Cullane's backup support and 50% of Uítheachair's backup support.
With 93% of respondents indicating they will definitely vote, this poll provides a detailed snapshot of both first preferences and transfer patterns heading into the December 12-13 election. The actual election results will determine whether these poll trends hold under full voter turnout.
The final word belongs to the voters.